Carlos Sainz: How outgoing Ferrari driver being back in Mercedes mix impacts 2025 F1 driver market (2024)

With the competition on track at its most fierce for a long time, several Formula 1 teams are facing key decisions over their 2025 driver line-ups.

Lewis Hamilton became the sixth different driver to claim victory across the opening 12 races of the season as the Mercedes driver ended his long wait for a win at Silverstone.

Mercedes have won back-to-back races to confirm their return to contention at the front of the grid, joining Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren in having triumphed during the first half of the season.

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Max Verstappen's early-season dominance means the Dutchman holds a significant 84-point lead at the top of the drivers' standings over Lando Norris, but it appears he will be pushed to the limit in his pursuit of a fourth successive title.

While the Red Bull driver remains the clear favourite to triumph this year, the mouth-watering prospect of an intense 2025 title battle, potentially between three or four drivers and teams, is looming.

This possibility is likely to be impacting the thinking of Mercedes, who still have a 2025 seat to fill, and Red Bull, who appear to be rethinking the two-year contract extension they recently gave the struggling Sergio Perez.

Ahead of the season resuming this weekend with back-to-back races in Hungary and Belgium before the summer break, Sky Sports F1 analyse the key decisions still to be made in the driver market.

Sainz back in the Mercedes mix

The driver market was sparked into life before the season had even begun when Hamilton's blockbuster switch from Mercedes to Ferrari was announced in February.

Along with the sport's most famous driver joining its most famous team, the move created a 2025 vacancy at Mercedes, and left an elite driver in Carlos Sainz without a seat.

Initially, the logical option of the 29-year-old filling the seat at Mercedes was mooted, but as time passed the Silver Arrows appeared to be leaning towards the youth of Italian teenager Andrea Kimi Antonelli to drive alongside George Russell.

Meanwhile, the prospect of a 2025 Red Bull drive for Sainz disappeared when Perez was given a new contract, but was never realistic due to the Spaniard's history with would-be team-mate Verstappen.

That appeared to leave Sainz likely to join the Sauber team that will become Audi in 2026, before Williams emerged as a contender, and then Alpine, with the saga regularly taking new twists, the latest of which is that Mercedes once more appear to be a realistic option.

Aside from a Sprint race win at Silverstone, Antonelli's results in F2 have been largely underwhelming, leaving doubt as to whether he is ready for F1, let alone a drive with one of the top teams.

There is also the fact that Mercedes have suddenly re-emerged as a contender for race wins, and on current form cannot be ruled out from competing for both the drivers' and constructors' title next season in the final year of the current regulations.

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff may now want the strongest line-up possible, rather than risking losing points as Antonelli adjusts to F1, and admitted at Silverstone that Sainz is back in the mix.

"I don't want to make a decision quickly. But yes, he is," Wolff said. "If we have more time to decide, Carlos is definitely still a chance, but Carlos needs to make a decision on what he does with the other teams."

Perez running out of time at Red Bull?

In contrast, Red Bull appear to be coming to terms with a realisation that they are no longer dominant enough to carry an underperforming second driver, as has been the case with Perez for far too long.

Perez was bizarrely given a two-year contact extension in June despite his form having begun to drop off, but it has worsened since with the Mexican scoring just 15 points across the last six races, compared to 119 for Verstappen in that time.

With McLaren and Mercedes closing in, and boasting strong driver line-ups consistently delivering points, alarm bells appear to be ringing in Milton Keynes.

Red Bull boss Christian Horner said at Silverstone that Perez "knows it's unsustainable to not be scoring points" and rumours of a mid-season axing were only heightened by reserve driver Liam Lawson getting a chance to test the RB20 on the Thursday after the British Grand Prix.

The 22-year-old New Zealander appears to be in line for a stunning promotion, leapfrogging RB's Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo, who clearly have not done enough for Red Bull's junior team to convince Horner they deserve to partner Verstappen.

Assuming Lawson delivered in the Silverstone test, Perez would appear to be running out of time to save his seat, with Hungary and Belgium potentially his last chances.

Replacing Perez less than two months after giving him a new contract would undoubtedly be embarrassing for Red Bull, but they could seek to lessen the blow by placing him at RB, with Ricciardo potentially at risk of having his season ended early.

Ocon expected to join Haas amid Williams rumour

Of the six 2025 seats still to be filled, the one with the least mystery around it appears to be the second seat at Haas alongside British teenager Oliver Bearman, whose signing was confirmed ahead of the British Grand Prix.

The 19-year-old is expected to be joined by outgoing Alpine driver Esteban Ocon, who Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu has spoken very highly of in recent weeks.

While that move appears to be all but done, Ocon was involved in a somewhat surprising rumour suggesting that he could replace Logan Sargeant at Williams after the summer break, making room for Alpine reserve driver Jack Doohan to stake his claim for a 2025 seat.

Williams boss James Vowles admitted at Silverstone that the struggling Sargeant could be replaced before the end of the season. But it would be strange to give his seat to a driver whose 2025 destiny is already decided.

It would surely be more useful for Williams to give the opportunity to a younger driver, such as Antonelli, who has been linked with them in the event Mercedes passed on him for 2025.

The only scenario in which such a move would make sense for Williams was if they were in some way incentivised by Alpine, who would benefit from the opportunity to assess Doohan alongside Pierre Gasly.

What will unsuccessful Sainz suitors do?

In the event Sainz does end up at Mercedes, there will be three teams - Alpine, Williams and Sauber - with a 2025 seat to fill.

The most obvious candidate to take one of the seats is the vastly experienced Valtteri Bottas, who seems likely to remain in the sport despite having failed to make much impact since leaving Mercedes for Sauber in 2022.

Bottas is of course already at Sauber, but the fact the team have signed Nico Hulkenberg from Haas for 2025 while also pursuing Sainz, shows that he is seen as expendable.

The 10-time race winner is known to have had meetings with Williams boss Vowles, who he worked with at Mercedes, and may favour a change of scenery, particularly given Sauber are not prioritising re-signing him.

However, F1 is a business, and in the event Sauber and Bottas turn out to be each other's only realistic options, the Finn could end up extending his stay.

Doohan would appear to be obvious choice for Alpine, but the fact they have been pursuing Sainz would suggest they are not completely sold on the Australian.

With Sargeant and Sauber's Zhou Guanyu appearing unlikely to remain in F1 after underwhelming campaigns, there aren't many realistic candidates floating around for whichever team is left without Sainz or Bottas.

The increasingly likely Red Bull reshuffle could add another name into the mix, with one of Perez or Ricciardo potentially becoming a 2025 free agent and providing an experienced and commercially viable option for any of these teams.

As 'silly season' approaches, there looks set to be plenty of entertainment off the track to go along with the thrilling action on it. Stay tuned!

Sky Sports F1's live Hungarian GP schedule

Thursday July 18
1.30pm: Drivers' Press Conference

Friday July 19
8.50am: F3 Practice
10am: F2 Practice
12pm: Hungarian GP Practice One (session starts at 12.30pm)
2pm: F3 Qualifying
3pm: F2 Qualifying
3.45pm: Hungarian GP Practice Two (session starts at 4pm)
5:15pm: The F1 Show

Saturday July 20
8:45am: F3 Sprint
11.15am: Hungarian GP Practice Three (session starts at 11.30am)
1.10pm: F2 Sprint
2.15pm: Hungarian GP Qualifying build-up
3pm: Hungarian GP Qualifying
5pm: Ted's Qualifying Notebook

Sunday July 21
7:20am: F3 Feature Race
9am: F2 Feature Race
11am: Porsche Supercup
12:30pm: Grand Prix Sunday - Hungarian GP build-up
2pm: The HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX
4pm: Chequered Flag: Hungarian GP reaction
5pm: Ted's Notebook

Next up for F1 is the Hungarian Grand Prix from Budapest on July 19-21. You can watch every session live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership - No contract, cancel anytime